ANALYSIS: Why did Delaware GOP lose in November -- on Delaware Politics

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WHY DID DELAWARE REPUBLICANS LOSE IN NOVEMBER 2010?


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How can any Republican win future elections in Delaware?

After Obama’s 2008 landslide, people asked whether the GOP would go the way of the Whigs. What a difference two years makes. But time alone did not transform an Obama 2008 landslide into a 2010 Republican wave.

You have to be ready to catch a wave. Those who have surfed or “body surfed” know that unless you are carefully positioned to catch a wave, you will simply be plowed under the water. Since 2008, the Delaware Republican Party wasted opportunities on destructive impulses while Republicans in other States prepared to win.

First, from a tip from Paul Protic, I documented how Democrat voter registration leaped by 11.2% since 2008 and 17.6% since 2007. Everyone thought Mike Castle would win the September 14 primary. So successful Democrat party-building occurred while Mike Castle was expected to be the Republican nominee. Democrats simply out-hustled Tom Ross and GOP insiders.

Second, Republican “Get out the vote” efforts dramatically encouraged Democrats to vote. There needs to be a careful study and review of the 2010 GOTV activity. What I saw was inconsistent and incompatible GOTV plans. The result is to churn up the ocean generally. Since Democrats have 110,000 more registered voters than Republicans do, unfocused general noise drives more Democrats to the polls than Republicans.

I sat in the Brandywine GOP headquarters making phone calls for the Party. The RNC and DEGOP had us calling “soft Democrat” and “independent” and “soft Republican” on unscreened phone lists the day of the election and the week before. I got large numbers of wrong phone numbers and hostile reactions from Democrats. I twice confirmed with the Brandywine team that we were calling unscreened lists of Democrats, Independents, and Republicans. (The computerized system should keep clear records.)

GOTV means identifying your supporters – months in advance. Then you contact only people you know will vote for your candidates. The other side gets their side out. Democrats had SEIU and other unions getting out their vote. The City of Wilmington shut down on election day to allow City employees to go out and campaign for Chris Coons on a government salary.

Voter ID has to be completed months before. If you call people or knock on their door within 4 weeks of election day, you are reminding everyone to vote. You ask “Can we count on your support for X?” If the voter’s answer is “NO!” (a) he will not tell you and (b) you just reminded him to go vote against you. He will go put “Remember to vote for the Democrat” on his calendar. The only voters who should be contacted in the last month of the election are those previously identified as supporting your candidate. Identifying voters within 4 weeks of election day is simply reminding Democrats to vote.

I believe a review of GOTV in 2010 will show organizations clashing with each other’s strategies and driving Democrats to the polls. From Brandywine in NCC, we were calling over the heads of the Kent County GOP and calling into Kent. I confirmed that we were following a strategy inconsistent with Kent’s GOP.

Third, exit polls show that 57% of Delaware voters support Barack Obama’s policies. Magically, the same 57% voted for Chris Coons over Christine O’Donnell. The 2010 election was seen as a referendum on Barack Obama. Bottom line: Obama remains popular in Delaware, despite losing support nationwide. The wave passed both West Virginia and Delaware by because Delaware still stands with Obama.

Many insult the intelligence of Delaware voters. Voters were told for a year that control of the US Senate and Obama’s agenda were at stake. Christine promised to block Obama’s agenda in the lame duck session. Yet we are asked to believe that people voted because Christine was a witch – not to support Obama and keep Democrats in control of the U.S. Senate. This shows contempt for Delawareans’ intelligence.

Fourth, Republicans can never win until they discover that liberals always attack any Republican. Republicans must learn to close ranks and defend their candidate the way Democrats do. Kentucky Republicans stood arm and arm around Rand Paul when he was attacked. But Delaware Republicans enlist in the Democrat army and fight for the Democrat.

In March of 2010, Tom Ross and his former assistant Kristin Murray began a campaign savagely attacking Christine O’Donnell. Kristin Murray spent only 1 1/2 weeks in O’Donnell’s 2008 campaign, but was fired for never showing up (distracted by a personal relationship concern).

Tom Ross knew that Murray spent only a few days in O’Donnell’s 2008 campaign, yet presented her as having “run” O’Donnell’s 2008 campaign to journalists and national Republicans and in a paid robo-call. Tom Ross lied. Ross and his former assistant Murray planted slanderous attacks in the News Journal in March, and knowingly spread falsehoods throughout the year. Murray is engaged to Alan Moore of Townhall and stirred up inside-the-beltway conservatives against O’Donnell.

The Republican GOP must learn to function as a team. Democrats do not tolerate attacks on Obama or other leaders. Democrats defend their candidates and leaders. Republicans in Delaware join in the attacks on their own candidates, and do the Democrats’ dirty work for them.

We propose to take power from Democrats. Delaware Republicans dream of a candidate who won’t be attacked. That fantasy is foolish. Any candidate will be attacked unless he poses no threat.

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Jon Moseley, a long time friend of Christine O’Donnell, was her campaign manager for her 2008 primary (convention contest) for the US Senate.